Provided André Onana is aware, or becomes aware, of the urgent need to refine and master several specific technical skills, he will find that achieving recognition as one of the all-time greats is a challenging and daunting task.

In my previous blog, titled Goalkeeper 2.0 – The New Age, I shared my excitement and optimism about André Onana’s game strategy, which showcases a distinctive set of personal traits that could possibly transform the goalkeeping spectrum in the EPL in his first season at Manchester United.  Now that the season has ended, we can now create a holistic game theory assessment one year into his 5-year contract deal. We will delve into his statistical and analytical data as provided by FBref, one of the most comprehensive sports data mining companies around, and also, we will analyse and assess his actual skillset capacity in correlation to his set of data. In addition, we will compare his past data sets with his former clubs as a point of reference to determine the gradient of his development, if he is to be regarded in the future as one of the all time great goalkeepers.

Statistical Data

For the purpose of transparency and simplicity, we are going to be investing our discussions with intrinsic value data analytics and cutting out the complex data science jargon that can and usually be confusing and misleading. Without further ado, let’s delve in..

The most glaring fact is that the Cameroonian conceded more goals than any other first choice debut season goalkeeper for Manchester United in the past 3 decades. In the Premiership alone, he conceded 58 goals (28 goals at home and 30 goals away) and rounding up the season with a goal difference of -1 and a final league table position of 8th place for his club. This marks the first time the club has ended the season with a negative goal difference, highlighting a clear decline in the quality of the defensive unit, both individually and collectively, in recent seasons. To what extent the goalkeeping and the defensive  coaching staff are consciously aware of this major crisis remains to be seen. As we’ve highlighted this obvious data we move on to some personal detailed data metrics regarding André Onana.

When analyzing Onana’s statistics on FBref, we see that his save percentage averages 75.7% over six seasons (excluding the 2021/2022 season due to his “doping” ban). This appears to be a decent score on paper. However, this can be misleading as the save percentage doesn’t account for the difficulty, ratio, and frequency of the shots faced. Therefore, a data mining system called PSxG was developed to better address these nuanced factors. Also, one can conclude that the more shots faced, the likelihood of goals conceded will inevitably increase, as in the case with his Manchester United debut season.

Onana encountered an extraordinary 203 shots, making 146 saves and allowing 58 goals. Examining his other statistical metrics such as attempted passes, throws, goal kicks, and sweeper actions reveals high numbers, suggesting that Manchester United’s defensive unit, on average, was frequently under pressure throughout the season. Another key metric is the number of opponents’ crosses attempted into the penalty area, which was 603. Of these, Onana successfully stopped 42, resulting in a 7% success rate. Since a substantial number of goals are generated from crosses into the penalty area (including corner kicks), this figure is somewhat below the standard for an elite goalkeeper, as a double-figure percentage rate is typically considered the benchmark.

Regarding his distribution and possession data, the Cameroonian excels in both the number of passes made and the frequency of possession. However, the true measure lies in how these actions influence the team’s performance in creating successful outcomes. He executed a total of 1,521 passes, including long, medium, and short range passes, deadballs, free kicks, arm distributions, and goalkicks. Interestingly, only 8 of the total passes led to shot creations,  goals scored, or both for his team. This statistical trend is typical for goalkeepers in the EPL and other top leagues, even with the modern emphasis on maximizing possession.

One of the most frustrating aspects of the FBref database system is the absence of data analytics for specific skillset disciplines such as low dives, mid-range dives, high dives, 1-v-1 situations, catches, punches, clean saves, blocks/interceptions, and parried shots. These data metrics are crucial for a comprehensive and detailed assessment. Advanced data mining companies like StatsBomb and Opta have developed these analytics, using infographics and computer simulation graphic modules to present the information. However, access to these insights is available only through a subscription.

FBref has provided Onana’s scouting report in an engaging manner. this comprehensive overview of his statistics reveals how he compares to his peers in the top 5 leagues competition, UEFA Champions League and UEFA European League competitions..

When we examine the percentiles for all his standard statistical skillsets as provided by FBref, his overall performance is somewhat average compared to his peers. In fact, averaging his percentile scores gives us a figure of 45.8, which is below the median of 50, indicating a subpar performance for an elite goalkeeper. Interestingly, his save percentage rate is 73%, placing him in the 64th percentile and outperforming a reasonable number of his peers. However, his goals-against average per 90 minutes is 1.66, which is relatively high and places him in the 28th percentile, with nearly three-quarters of his peers performing better.

If we match his scouting reports with his counterpart Arsenal FCs David Raya, who won the EPL 2023/2024 Golden Glove Award, some interesting information comes to light.

At first glance, the data suggests the Spaniard is the superior goalkeeper, but does it tell the full story? My initial focus is on the PSxG/SoT (Post-Shot Expected Goals per Shot on Target) data, which calculates the likelihood of a goal based on the difficulty of shots and other game variables. Raya’s PSxG/SoT is 0.25, placing him in the 15th percentile, while Onana’s is 0.27, placing him in the 40th percentile. Additionally, Raya faced an average of 69 shots on target, saving 45 of them, resulting in a 68.1% save percentage. In contrast, Onana faced 203 shots on target, saving 146, giving him a 74.9% save percentage. It is important to note that the PSxG/SoT statistical data is based on the probability that a goal scored from the shot, regardless of the goalkeepers competency. PSxG+/- (Post Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed) is a calculable metric system that is meant to measure the performance of a goalkeeper (a debatable Theory), relative to the shots faced but more importantly has no reflection or correlation to the shot-stopping ability of the goalkeeper.

As indicated above, Onana has a PSxG+/- of +2.1 which according to the definition, his saves rate is above average and Raya’s numbers are -2.6 which according to the the definition, his saves rate is considerably below average, but by winning the Golden Glove Award, he is the best goalkeeper for the season by default. In my opinion, over the season Onana and Raya are more than capable of making a lot more saves that would have significantly impacted their final statistical data and their respective teams final standings in the EPL. Nevertheless, analyzing these statistical data reveals that relying on complex metrics to highlight the development of goalkeeping skills in the modern game is quite elusive. The true measure lies in the gradual realization of skillset abilities, which establishes a more reliable benchmark for data metrics.

A side note to be aware of is that David Raya, who won the EPL Golden Glove Award with 16 clean sheets (a cognitive biased system of ability assessment) and conceded 24 goals, is not the first choice goalkeeper in the Spanish national squad that is currently playing in the Euro2024 in Germany. Unai Simón of Athletic Bilbao FC is the first choice with 33 goals conceded in the 2023/2024 La Liga season for his club. The Zamora Award was won by Marc-André ter Stegen with 26 clean sheets and conceded 18 goals for Barcelona FC. The pressing question is, what are the definitive objective criteria used to evaluate goalkeeper performance? Is it determined by statistical data, visual analytics, or is it primarily based on subjective preferences?

Visual Analytics

Statistical data mining is undoubtedly a transformative element in the football ecosystem. However, analyzing goalkeeper data is considerably more complex and elusive compared to outfield players. Visual analysis provides more valuable insights, allowing experts to evaluate goalkeepers’ overall on-field abilities. For instance, Onana displayed promising skills during his tenure at Ajax FC and Inter Milan FC, but his time in the English Premier League has highlighted significant flaws in his shot-stopping abilities, set-positioning, and anticipating opposition threat attacks.

To illustrate, we will analyze two videos from different games, focusing on the goals conceded by the Cameroonian goalkeeper. I want to emphasize that this is a common trend among elite and professional goalkeepers in how they react to similar situations.

The first video is the Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester United Premier League game, in which they suffered a 4 – 0 loss. The three key points to note here in the manner that Onana conceded these goals are dependent on his: –

• Awareness and anticipation to danger
• Timing and movement into Set-positioning
• Power of explosiveness in dive executions.

Defenders naturally depend on goalkeepers for information about positioning and tactical threats, especially when possession is lost. Counter-attacks are highly effective and often result in goals if the defence is unprepared. In this case, the four goals occurred due to a lack of preparedness, stemming from insufficient awareness and anticipation. There was a clear absence of communication between Onana and key defenders, which was crucial for neutralizing threats before they culminated in goals. In each instance that led to a conceded goal, Onana appeared to focus more on the immediate threat rather than using anticipation to communicate it to his defenders. Whether he actually communicated and the information was heard, understood, or ignored is another matter.

The ability to anticipate opposition attacks or potential threats is directly linked to the speed and timing of getting into the set position. If anticipation is mediocre or below average, then speed, reaction time, movement, and set-positioning will be misaligned. I won’t delve deeply into movement, but I will discuss a particularly popular and overused skillset discipline: the A-frame set-positioning. I’ve written extensively about the long-term negative impact this discipline has on goalkeepers, and Onana is no exception. His wide stance (about 3 feet or more) in the set-positioning, intended to block shots with either foot, significantly hinders his ability to dive for low, medium, or high shots on target. Half a second can cost goalkeepers goals when they have to readjust by performing two actions:

1. Generate the necessary energy for the dive by moving the foot closest to the shot towards the pivot foot, covering a distance of over 3 feet.
2. Then, execute the dive, which generates significantly less momentum due to the initial movement.

RFD (Rate of Force Development) and Plyometrics are the key components of developing the torso, leg muscles, and joints that increase vertical leaps and with the correct training methods, can be incorporated into the enhancement of diving techniques. It is yet to be determined whether these specialized training techniques are being efficiently and effectively integrated into the training programs of professionals, including Onana, as evidence is still lacking. The four goals he conceded (except for the 3rd goal which he could have instinctively cut the weak cutback cross inside his 6 yard box), lacked any force or power behind the dive executions and this is just one game of many throughout the season which he displayed similar diving executions that resulted in identical weak or mediocre outcomes.

The second video below showcases the FA Cup Final, where Manchester United triumphed 2-1 over their city rivals, Manchester City FC. The conceded goal, explained in the previous analysis, highlights his lagging reaction to the shot, counterproductive set-positioning, and ineffective dive. His immediate reaction, filled with frustration, clearly indicates his awareness that he should have saved the shot. In my opinion, out of the five goals conceded, four could have been prevented or saved, along with other similar situations in a significant amount of games throughout the season. This would have significantly improved the Cameroonian’s statistical data and scouting reports, as well as positively impacted the team’s performance and standings.

Conclusion

Onana has a lot to prove and, more specifically, an indebt reassessment of his shot-stopping skillset style and abilities by his coaches at Manchester United or his personal goalkeeping consultant if he’s got one. He’s got 4 seasons left on his lucrative contract, and if this is the best we can expect from André Onana’s goalkeeping performance after his Premiership debut season, then he will struggle to maintain the number one position (ironically his preferred number is 24.. don’t ask) for the tenure of his contract. I hope his personal management team acknowledges the highlighted concerns and understands the urgency in addressing them, especially since the 2024/2025 season will place him under intense scrutiny. Opposition fans are increasingly aware of his weaknesses, making it crucial to act promptly. The underlying fact is that his statistical data and visual analytics are at best average compared to his counterparts, and it is even below average compared to his peers in the big top 5 leagues. Manchester United will not hesitate to replace him if he fails to improve on his current skillset abilities as there are goalkeepers out there currently playing above his percentile range.

I have high expectations that André Onana will become a massive success at Manchester United, but that assumption is dependent on the urgency of awareness in addressing his technical deficiencies in his holistic shot-stopping skillset abilities. If he is under any illusion that he had a successful debut season because he won the FA Cup and received a winning medal, then he is setting himself up for a tranfer before his contract runs out and a significant part of the demise will be accredited to his personal management team.

Once more, I pose the question: In the context of a league season, what scenario holds more intrinsic value— a goalkeeper creating an average of 20 goals or a goalkeeper saving an average of 20 goals? We need to revisit the fundamental duties of a goalkeeper and have honest discussions about whether the guardians of this crucial role have done enough to advance the craft.

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